Rugby World Cup predictions

The Rugby World Cup is just six weeks away and fans everywhere are making their picks for who will bring bome the William Webb Ellis trophy, but the road to glory is a tough one.

The Rugby World Cup starts off with pool play, there are four pools of five teams and the top two teams in each pool go through to the quarter finals when it becomes sudden death. The teams to come out of the first three pools look reasonably obvious, but pool D could be topped by any of three teams.

Pool A features defending champions England, former champions South Africa, Samoa, Tonga and the USA. It is unlikely that the USA or Tonga will cause any upsets, but Samoa could give the big boys a bit of a surprise. That said, South Africa should top this pool, building on last season’s win at Twickenham and this year’s series win over England, with the defending champs qualifying as runner up.

Of all four pools, Pool B is likely to offer the fewest surprises. Australia, Canada, Fiji, Japan and Wales will contest this pool and expect Australia to top this pool with Wales runner up. Fiji are a world power in seven-a-side rugby, but that success has not translated into the 15 man version of the game, while Canada and Japan are clear second tier teams.

There is a potential upset on the cards in Pool C. Romania and Portugal are just here to make up the numbers, while the All Blacks will win this pool. The battle for runner up will be fought between Scotland and Italy, traditionally the Scots would be favoured in this game but after their Six Nations win in Edinburgh, do not be surprised if the Italians finish runner up in this group.

The “pool of death” at this tournament is definitely Pool D. Georgia and Namibia will be demolished in all of their games,  but any of Argentina, Ireland or hosts France could come out of this pool. Argentina beat the Irish in a two test series earlier this year, but Ireland had left most of their best players at home, while France scraped home in this year’s Six Nations on points difference over Ireland. France should win this pool, with Ireland second, but the Argentineans could easily upset either of these teams and claim a quarter final spot.

If the results go as predicted, then Australia will play England in the first quarter final in a replay of the 2003 Rugby World Cup final. The Australians should exact revenge for their extra time loss in this game and move into the semi finals.

The next quarter final is a real mouth watering prospect as New Zealand take on Ireland. The All Blacks showed up a potential weakness in the Irish during the 2005 Lions tour, so expect Jerry Collins to run the ball straight at Ronan O’Gara all day, and the New Zealanders superior fitness winning the day.

The Springboks should account for the Welsh in the third quarter final, using their rugged forward play to starve Wales of possession. The last quarter final sees hosts France play Scotland, or possibly Italy, in a game they should easily win.

At semi final time there will be the hosts and the three Southern Hemisphere powers left, and no doubt the Northern Hemisphere media will be working overtime to excuse their poor showing and trying to figure out why the Southern Hemisphere teams are so much better.

The first semi final will be between New Zealand and Australia, a game which the All Blacks should win. These teams have played each other so often over the past 12 years in the Tri-Nations that both will know what to expect, but aside from the slip up in Melbourne this year, the All Blacks have been dominant in this rivalry lately.

The other semi final between South Africa and France will be decided up the Springboks’ discipline. If they keep their cool, the Boks should be too good, but if the French get under their skin, as they are so good at doing, a South African meltdown could be on the cards. Having said that, I expect the Springboks to win this game, making the final a replay of the 1995 final.

There is little to be read into the Boks’ loss to the All Blacks in Christchurch, but their clash in Durban showed just how close this game will be. Both sides will use ultra-conservative game plays as one mistake could easily decide the game. There will also be a lot of goal kicking, and few tries will be scored, putting the pressure squarely on goal kickers Dan Carter and Percy Montgomery.

Both sides boast explosive players in their back lines, and it could easily be a moment of individual brilliance from Bryan Habana or Joe Rokocoko that decides the Cup. Of course all that analysis can wait until game day, but the All Blacks, if they keep their composure, should finally end their World Cup drought and bring the William Webb Ellis trophy back home.

As has been seen in previous World Cups, once the quarter finals begin, anything can happen. Could Wales knock out the Springboks? On their day, yes. Will the All Blacks falter against Ireland? It could happen, it happened in 2003 against Australia. Will France recapture the form that saw them topple the All Blacks in 1999? They might, and that is the beauty of sports, on any given day you will win or you will lose, and until the final whistle blows, both outcomes are still possible.

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The Rugby World Cup predictions by Hamish McBrearty, unless otherwise expressly stated, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.