Archive for April, 2009

Chris Rattue at the NZ Herald has put together an interesting piece extolling the virtues of the Blues signing Dan Carter for the 2010 Super 14 and once again showing a pro-Auckland bias.

Hopefully, it isn’t too late to roll out the red carpet. A story blew in and out a week or so ago, claiming Dan Carter might consider making Auckland even more of a home by playing for the Blues.

No doubt written by some pro-Auckland scribe who didn’t know what he was talking about.

If rugby was truly professional, and the Auckland Rugby Union wasn’t run by blokes who are glorified car parking attendants, then Carter should be a cinch for this city’s team.

Auckland needs Dan Carter, and New Zealand rugby needs its major region to be invigorated.

Talk about savage, giving up on Luke McAlister before he’s even played a game for the Blues, or is Rattue forgetting the Blues will have McAlister and current Highlander Daniel Bowden in the squad next year?

The Blues are short of real stars, the sort who get the turnstile clicking and win titles. As long as Carter is fully recovered from a serious leg injury, there isn’t a better prospect to fire up the game in this city than the billboard king himself.

And yet when the former billboard king, Carlos Spencer, was interested in returning to Auckland the NZRU seemed more interested in punishing Spencer for the way he left in 2005 than the good of Auckland rugby.

Auckland, and even the NZRU, should bust a boiler to get Carter into the Auckland ranks rather than see him return to Canterbury after his injury-ruined sojourn in France.

Why? To strengthen the Blues at the expense of all the other franchises? The Chiefs have Stephen Donald cemented at 10, the Hurricanes have rotated Willie Ripia, Daniel Kirkpatrick and Piri Weepu, the Crusaders have had Stephen Brett and Colin Slade split time and the Highlanders have settled on Bowden who is bound for the Blues next year anyway. Surely it would make more sense to let Carter return to the Crusaders where he’s guaranteed a start, rather than to the Blues where he’d battle McAlister and Bowden for the 10 jersey and may well be played out of position. No, that would be a poor move for New Zealand rugby.

It’s hard to gauge whether there is much substance to the Carter-Blues talk, and even harder to know what Carter himself is thinking.

Translation: There’s probably nothing to this story but it makes for interesting debate.

Watching their pathetic capitulation against the Reds at Albany, there must be serious questions over whether discipline in their camp is what it should be.

Who would have predicted that? Oh wait, me!

Whether the Blues make the semifinals or not – and you would have to doubt that they will – their progress is not encouraging. Pat Lam needs a major rethink.

If only that future could include Dan Carter. The trouble is, Carter may not regard trying to turn around an unruly side as the best way of preparing for the All Blacks, or enjoying his rugby.

Well when you put it like that, Carter would be a fool to play in a Blues jersey. Wait, what are you trying to argue for again here?

That would be a shame, because the Blues could represent a wonderful adventure for him and the chance to play a very expressive game.

Or it could be a complete disaster and leave Carter with another year lacking in quality rugby ahead of a World Cup.

He might even have the chance to alter the course of history. A Blues backline with Carter and Luke McAlister in 10 and 12 would turn the competition on its head, and it is also a potential test combination that could be honed in the Super 14.

Except right now it’s hard to go past Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith for the 12 and 13 jerseys, leaving Carter and McAlister battling for the 10. Potential test combination? Yeah right!

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As the Super 14 reaches the business end of the competition I thought I’d mix and match my mathematical models and post some predictions as to who will make the semi finals. These could be wildly inaccurate as they are based on incomplete data but the results are interesting.

Before I publish the tables, let me mention a couple of caveats. First, these predictions only work a week in advance, so the predictions for week 13 and 14 results do not have all the results factored in. Secondly, bonus points are completely disregarded for the purpose of this exercise as there is no way of predicting which way they could go.

Sports After Dark
Hurricanes 46
Bulls 45
Chiefs 40
Sharks 39
Crusaders 39
Force 36
Blues 34
Waratahs 32
Brumbies 31
Highlanders 27
Stormers 23
Lions 19
Reds 18
Cheetahs 11
Hollinger
Hurricanes 46
Bulls 41
Force 40
Chiefs 40
Sharks 39
Blues 38
Waratahs 36
Crusaders 35
Highlanders 27
Brumbies 27
Stormers 23
Lions 19
Reds 18
Cheetahs 11

Interestingly enough, both models predict the Hurricanes, Bulls and Chiefs to make the top four, with either the Force or Sharks rounding out the top four. Neither seem beyond the realm of possibility either, although the Force get a big boost to their Hollinger ranking due to their drubbing of the Lions which may mean they’re over-ranked.

Personally I’m inclined to agree with my model on current form, and this one sees no Australian teams in the semi finals…

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Stuff have a very interesting story about former All Black Aaron Mauger trying a controversial treatment in an effort to be fit for the Heineken Cup semi finals.

Former All Black Aaron Mauger’s place in this weekend’s Heineken Cup semifinals rests with the powers of a German doctor who uses rooster body parts in his healing processes.

Hit by a back problem, Mauger’s club sent him to Munich to visit Dr Hans Muller-Wolfhart whose patients have included English sporting stars Michael Owen and Paula Radcliffe.

The Daily Mail reported that Muller-Wolfhart’s treatment includes a substance taken from crushed pink cockerels’ combs.

Eww, just eww!

Categories : rugby
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Peter Jessup over at NZ Herald has an interesting perspective on what rugby needs to do to retain its place as the number one sport in the country with interest supposedly waining and fans staying away.

I tried to watch the Super 14 at the weekend – I really tried hard – but the lack of professionalism is a big turn-off.

So did I but MySky wouldn’t come to the party. I recorded the Crusaders game but after about 10 minutes it told me it had reached the end of the program. By all accounts I didn’t miss much.

Never mind the confusion over the different varieties of rules and the different interpretations since the advent of the ELVs…

Let’s not forget the Cheetahs and Brumbies both taking the field in mostly white jerseys a couple of weeks ago.

…the game would be vastly improved if the players managed the simple process of passing and catching the ball, holding on to it in the tackle and then setting it properly for quick recycling.

It’s hard, on first impressions, to deny that Jessup has a very good point here. While I’d like to see some hard data before completely passing judgment, it seems to me that the standard of handling this season has gone seriously downhill. Australian rugby writer Spiro Zarvos suggested the Waratahs should cancel their 15 minutes of fun cricket they begin training sessions with and replace it with passing and catching practice. Last weekend I thought the Sharks were catching like real sharks and the ball seemed to be forever bouncing off their flippers.

The continued flakiness in the Blues’ backline and the Crusaders’ inability to score tries do not make for edge-of-the-seat stuff. Who knows from week to week which Hurricanes team will turn up.

OK, Blues are crap and we know it now. Hurricanes have blown hot and cold for years but could be peaking at the right time and the Crusaders are suffering from a lack of Dan Carter and Richie McCaw. No team can lose their two best players, and the coach, without missing a beat.

Maybe the opponents of the proposed new stadium for Dunedin won’t have to worry about going to court. The way the side went against the lowly Stormers on Friday night, they are unlikely to have a fan base that requires one.

Increasingly, it looks like time for the Highlanders to head for the hills. Otago and Southland simply do not have the player depth to keep competing at the Super Rugby level as evidenced by their heavy reliance on the draft.

This is a depth problem that is New Zealand wide and has been caused by the player drain. Go back a couple of years and there were enough Super 14 level first fives to go around all five teams, these days only one team is truely set at 10, the Chiefs with Stephen Donald.

The combination of low population and therefore limited market, plus poor performance over recent seasons and the probability that they will continue to miss the playoffs, makes it likely they will struggle to find sponsors willing to fork out the big sums that would draw quality talent and keep it.

On that showing southern rugby does not deserve a multimillion-dollar investment.

And given the constant flow of both top-tier and second-tier talent overseas, are there really sufficient players in this country now to construct five playoff-competitive teams?

No, but I don’t think there ever was. Maybe four contenders and one work in progress, but five contenders? Never happened.

The lights-out episode at North Harbour Stadium also raises the issue of professionalism.

Actually, I think that had more to do with New Zealand’s shoddy infrastructure than the rugby union.

The McAlister fiasco also throws up the question of the professionalism of the NZRU. How long can it be before there is acceptance of the glaringly obvious fact that the All Blacks are no longer the be-all and end-all of sport in New Zealand, let alone the rest of the rugby world.

They used to have an aura of invincibility. Had they maintained that, there was the opportunity to command the highest price for performance. But after failure to win at World Cups since 1987 that is gone.

And other nations are now starting to wake up and allow their players to be based overseas while being able to represent their country. The time is coming when the NZRU will have to relax the New Zealand based rule, and the sooner the better. They can no longer hold up the All Black jersey as a symbol of international rugby supremecy, two nations have won the World Cup on two separate occasions and New Zealand isn’t one of them.

New Zealand rugby will never compete with the money in England and Europe. Competitions there appear to be gathering strength and enjoy increasing crowds and financial backing, higher broadcasting fees.

Our players will continue to take their opportunities and grab the big money while they can and who can blame them?

Nobody really, and as pointed out, dangling an All Black jersey doesn’t keep the players here.

Nothing can be done to stop this. What can be changed is the ridiculous rule that players must be New Zealand residents to be eligible for the All Blacks.

Amen!

Categories : Uncategorized
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You’ll have to forgive me if I’m a little confused this week. Looking at NZ Herald’s Power Rankings last week had me scratching my head at the absurdly high ranking of the Blues, but this week has me completely bamboozled. In last week’s Inside The Numbers I pointed out that both the Chiefs and Blues lack wins over semi final contenders at this late stage in the season, yet both teams continue to enjoy high rankings from the Herald.

Sports After Dark Power Ranking NZ Herald
Hurricanes 64.93 Chiefs
Bulls 60.60 Bulls
Chiefs 59.22 Crusaders
Sharks 57.83 Hurricanes
Force 53.43 Blues
Waratahs 50.53 Sharks
Crusaders 46.28 Waratahs
Blues 44.37 Force
Brumbies 40.40 Stormers
Highlanders 39.38 Brumbies
Stormers 33.98 Highlanders
Reds 24.10 Reds
Lions 19.05 Lions
Cheetahs 14.18 Cheetahs

This is the stage of the season where teams are the bottom of the list cannot be forgiven for what they have done up to now, while teams at the top are asked, “What have you done for me lately?” Despite the Cheetahs and Reds both winning, it’s hard to forgive seven or eight losses out of ten games this late in the season.

But, at the top of the table, how can the Chiefs remain ranked first despite losing? And how can the Crusaders improve their ranking after losing to the bottom ranked team? On a side note, according to my rankings the Crusaders dropped two places after that loss.

Also, how did the Sharks suffer such a big drop (4 places) just for having the bye?

My rankings, based entirely on hard data, are not perfect, but at least they don’t forget teams just because they didn’t play one weekend because of a scheduled break.

In conclusion, I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion that to do accurate ranking you need to start with hard data first, then adjust from the gut because ranking solely from the gut leads to ranking based on a couple of recent performances rather than a whole season.

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