With just one round remaining there are seven teams still in the hunt for just four semi final spots. Applying Sports After Dark’s two ranking formulas reveals who is going to fight another day, and who will be planning for 2010 this time next week.

Here’s how I’m predicting the table to look, without any bonus points, next Monday:

The Sharks, who just two weeks ago were predicted to be in the semis, have now been supplanted by the Crusaders and look set to miss out after dropping three of their last four games. Even a bonus point win over the Bulls may not be enough to make the semi finals if other results do not go their way.

This year’s title race could be decided by bonus points, although the current top four do have their own destinies in hand. Bonus point wins to the Crusaders and Hurricanes, which are very achievable, will see them secure their semi final places, while the Chiefs and Bulls can make the semi finals even if they lose their finals game, but that would require other results to go in their favour.

The other thing that I find interesting is this is the first time all season that both ranking models have agreed on all seven results.

With just one week to go in the round robin of Super 14 and it’s time for to once again compare my rankings to those publish by the Herald on Sunday. Once again, I may have to cut the Herald some slack due to publishing deadlines, it’s entirely possible this column was published before the last three games of the round from South Africa. Then again, I suppose that’s one of the disadvantages of traditional media.

Strangely we agree on the top four, although not in the same order. However, I question the ranking of the Sharks at two, this is a team who seem to be fading fast with just one win from their last four outings and face the table topping Bulls in what is a virtual quarter final in the last week of the round robin. I tend to think fourth, which is where I have them, is a much better spot.

Other than the Sharks, it’s hard to argue with any of the other rankings, but we’ve both had 13 weeks and 84 games to figure it out. Glad to see we both got there in the end.

Last week I published an article containing how my two ranking models were predicting who would make the semi finals. The answer was resoundingly the Hurricanes, Bulls and Chiefs, with either the Sharks or Force rounding out the top four. Another week has gone by, the models have been fed more data and with just two weeks to go, here’s how they are predicting the table to finish.

Both tables are now virtually identical, with the only result the models disagree on being the Brumbies v Blues game this weekend. As neither of the models takes bonus points into account, there could be a little shuffling, but given their various runs home, I am now officially endorsing the top four predicted by these models as the way the Super 14 will finish. That sees the Bulls facing the Chiefs in Pretoria and the Hurricanes facing the Crusaders in Wellington as your semi finalist.