With that in mind, Sports After Dark will be publishing our power rankings for the Air New Zealand Cup, along with an experimental ranking system being prepared for next year’s Super 14. Alongside the power rankings will be the return of the weekly column Inside The Numbers appearing every Wednesday taking a look at various statistics from around the Air New Zealand Cup.

As with the Super 14, week one power rankings will not be published as teams with a 1-0 record end up with a ranking of 67 and those with an 0-1 record end up on 33.

I am also looking at doing a series of audio interviews with Canterbury players, as well as publishing all of the post match press conferences online.

Here’s how I’m predicting the table to look, without any bonus points, next Monday:

The Sharks, who just two weeks ago were predicted to be in the semis, have now been supplanted by the Crusaders and look set to miss out after dropping three of their last four games. Even a bonus point win over the Bulls may not be enough to make the semi finals if other results do not go their way.

This year’s title race could be decided by bonus points, although the current top four do have their own destinies in hand. Bonus point wins to the Crusaders and Hurricanes, which are very achievable, will see them secure their semi final places, while the Chiefs and Bulls can make the semi finals even if they lose their finals game, but that would require other results to go in their favour.

The other thing that I find interesting is this is the first time all season that both ranking models have agreed on all seven results.

Strangely we agree on the top four, although not in the same order. However, I question the ranking of the Sharks at two, this is a team who seem to be fading fast with just one win from their last four outings and face the table topping Bulls in what is a virtual quarter final in the last week of the round robin. I tend to think fourth, which is where I have them, is a much better spot.

Other than the Sharks, it’s hard to argue with any of the other rankings, but we’ve both had 13 weeks and 84 games to figure it out. Glad to see we both got there in the end.

Both tables are now virtually identical, with the only result the models disagree on being the Brumbies v Blues game this weekend. As neither of the models takes bonus points into account, there could be a little shuffling, but given their various runs home, I am now officially endorsing the top four predicted by these models as the way the Super 14 will finish. That sees the Bulls facing the Chiefs in Pretoria and the Hurricanes facing the Crusaders in Wellington as your semi finalist.

What’s interesting here is the Blues still being ranked higher than their current form would suggest, and let’s not forget that the Blues’ downfall was predicted two weeks ago on Inside the Numbers. The Sharks just four places, according to the Herald, after being a lacklustre Highlanders team in a game that was very hard on the eyes. In defence of the Herald, they probably had to go to press before this game was played.

The other ranking that baffles me is the Crusaders who, despite winning, move down two places. After picking up a crutial bonus point, they now appear poised for a run at the semi finals, particularly as some of the teams above them are yet to play each other. Then there was this little quip:

What is it about our blinkered rugby psyche that makes us believe the Crusaders are admirable for the way they grind out victories this season, yet the Waratahs are committing weekly crimes against rugby? Could it be the same reason the rest of the rugby world thinks we’re arrogant so-and-sos?

Nobody is claiming the Crusaders have set the world on fire this season, but the fact remains the Crusaders have been close to fulfilling their promise while the Waratahs have gotten more and more inept at the season has gone on. But then again, this is just more of the Herald’s pro-Auckland bias…

Before I publish the tables, let me mention a couple of caveats. First, these predictions only work a week in advance, so the predictions for week 13 and 14 results do not have all the results factored in. Secondly, bonus points are completely disregarded for the purpose of this exercise as there is no way of predicting which way they could go.

Interestingly enough, both models predict the Hurricanes, Bulls and Chiefs to make the top four, with either the Force or Sharks rounding out the top four. Neither seem beyond the realm of possibility either, although the Force get a big boost to their Hollinger ranking due to their drubbing of the Lions which may mean they’re over-ranked.

Personally I’m inclined to agree with my model on current form, and this one sees no Australian teams in the semi finals…

This is the stage of the season where teams are the bottom of the list cannot be forgiven for what they have done up to now, while teams at the top are asked, “What have you done for me lately?” Despite the Cheetahs and Reds both winning, it’s hard to forgive seven or eight losses out of ten games this late in the season.

But, at the top of the table, how can the Chiefs remain ranked first despite losing? And how can the Crusaders improve their ranking after losing to the bottom ranked team? On a side note, according to my rankings the Crusaders dropped two places after that loss.

Also, how did the Sharks suffer such a big drop (4 places) just for having the bye?

My rankings, based entirely on hard data, are not perfect, but at least they don’t forget teams just because they didn’t play one weekend because of a scheduled break.

In conclusion, I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion that to do accurate ranking you need to start with hard data first, then adjust from the gut because ranking solely from the gut leads to ranking based on a couple of recent performances rather than a whole season.

Interestingly enough, we agree on more than half of the positions with our top two and bottom four being identical and also both ranking the Hurricanes fourth and the Waratahs sixth.

However the ranking I must take the most serious issue with is the Blues in third, ahead of the Bulls. Why does caning the Highlanders at home jump them up three places, while a last second away loss sees the Bulls remain in fifth? Quality of opponent? No, because the Herald had the Highlanders at eight and the Brumbies at nine. And that’s not taking into account the Bulls’ superior win-loss record. I’m putting this one down to where the newspaper is published.

Other than the Blues, none of our ranking disagree by more than two places which I guess goes to show that enough hard data and gut feelings tend to regress to mean as well and converge at the end of the season.

Speaking of the Blues, if I can wrap my head around a couple of difficult programming problems I hope to have some interesting figures on their performances for this week’s Inside The Numbers. For now I’ll leave you with this thought: The Blues have five wins this season over the Force, Stormers, Cheetahs, Lions and Highlanders, where are those teams both on the table and the rankings?

Here the weekly countdown of the Super 14 Power Rankings at the end of week 2

So what are Power Rankings? Power Rankings are often used in the NFL where teams do not play every other team in the league as a means of comparing teams who will never play. They take a lot of factors into consideration such as points scored, points allowed and even the relative strength of the opposition. In the end they are expressed as numbers and the team with the higher ranking is the better team.

My particular ranking algorithm, like most, can predict most results but there will always be some left fielders which completely surprise everyone. Case in point, the Force beating the Blues at home last year, my rankings said the Blues should win easily, as did most other pundits, but then again, if my rankings were perfect I’d be spending a lot of time at my local TAB.

Let’s take a look at an example. At the end of the round robin phase of the Air New Zealand Cup, here are the quarter finalists’ Power Rankings:

Interestingly enough, the Power Rankings put Southland ahead of Bay of Plenty despite the Bay having three more points and one more win than Southland. And who won that quarter final? Southland, by some margin. After the quarter finals it became quite obvious which teams would be contesting the final with Wellington and Canterbury head and shoulders ahead of the rest, and the rankings told this story:

Ahead of the final it was clear the two best teams were playing for the title. Because of the Air New Zealand Cup’s 10 round structure with 14 teams, Wellington and Canterbury had not played each other yet. But using Sport’s After Dark’s Power Rankings it was clear that the game would be extremely close, but Canterbury had a slim advantage.

In the end Canterbury won the final by 7-6 and it doesn’t get much closer than that! Obviously Wellington were a single drop goal away from victory, so don’t be the house when the rankings are this close.

Now, for those of you looking to take advantage of these Power Rankings in an online tipping competition, I highly recommend NZ Virtual Sport’s Super 14 competition. With 94 matches over 16 weeks and 470 points up for grabs there is ample opportunity for all to vie for the title.

If you are looking for something a little more intimate than your standard picks competition then look no further than the Super 14 Challenge matches. Create your own challenge, invite your mates and compete head to head in private challenges or join one of our public challenges. The format of the challenges will follow the Super 14 competition. You will compete in 14 round robin matches and if you make the grade you will progress to the finals.