Archive for Tri-Nations

A lot has been made in the media and blogs about the number of penalties given away by the All Blacks in this year’s Tri Nations and how there is some sort of dark conspiracy favouring the All Blacks in the upper levels of the IRB. While I don’t believe that to be the case, the numbers do show the All Blacks are the most penalised team in the Tri Nations.

So what are all those penalties for? Is there some way to quantify and analyse them? Luckily, thanks to the South African Rugby Referees’ site, there is. The penalties are broken down into four categories: Tackle/Ruck/Maul (TRM), offside, scrum and discipline. That last category is somewhat all encompassing, running from high tackles to throwing the ball away.

TRM Offside Scrum Discipline Total
New Zealand 31 11 8 3 53
South Africa 27 3 7 3 40
Australia 22 1 6 1 30

Breaking those numbers down into percentages makes for some very interesting reading.

TRM Offside Scrum Discipline
New Zealand 58.5% 20.75% 15% 5.6%
South Africa 67.5% 7.5% 17.5% 7.5%
Australia 73.3% 3.3% 20% 3.3%

As you can see, the All Blacks give away a higher proportion of offside penalties, while the Boks get hammered in the scrums. Despite all the talk about Richie McCaw’s tactics, it’s the Aussies who give away the most penalties at the breakdown.

Some have also suggested that McCaw gives away more penalties than any other in the Tri Nations, well I have those numbers too.

Penalties
McCaw 10
O Franks 6
Woodcock 6
Pocock 5
Elsom 4
Genia 4
Muliaina 4
Read 4
Steenkamp 4

So McCaw is the leading cuprit by a mile when it comes to conceding penalties, and somehow he managed to concede five of those in just one game. Yet McCaw claims players need to adapt to the referees’ rulings, coming from the most penalised player in the Tri Nations, this is a little rich.

As an All Blacks fan, I’m delighted with how well the team is playing, and I hope their winning ways continue into the 2011 Rugby World Cup, but critics from all around the world have continued to point out these issues with the All Blacks’ game plan and here in New Zealand the best the media can do is accuse them of whinging. Well I happen to agree with McCaw when he says statistics do not always tell the full story, the yellow card stats being an obvious example, but in this case they paint a pretty compelling picture.

Rather than sweep this under the rug, the New Zealand rugby media need to actually put the hard questions to the All Blacks, rather than writing some of the self-indulgent drivel about how great we are. Perhaps then, when the penalty stats aren’t so skewed against us we can dismiss Aussies, Saffas and Poms as whingers.

One final stat that caught my eye, over the Tri Nations 20 different All Blacks have been penalised, 22 Springboks and just 15 Wallabies. Granted the Wallabies have one fewer game on the board, but it goes to show that aside from a few blips like McCaw and Pocock, penalties are fairly evenly shared out.

In a show of blogging solidarity, I’m going in to bat for Matt over at Green And Gold Rugby for his latest piece pointing out issues around the All Blacks’ tactics. Now while you can question Matt’s motives, you cannot question his point: the All Blacks are the most penalised team in this year’s Tri-Nations and have received the fewest yellow cards.

Matt has come under attack from Herald on Sunday editor Paul Lewis, which he expertly rebuffs as well as Sky Sports Bevan Sanson who attempts to counter Matt’s argument, only to further prove it.

As Matt points out, the All Blacks are the most penalised team in this year’s Tri-Nations, having picked up a total of 56 penalties in five games. By contrast the Aussies have 23 from three games and South Africa 34 from four games.

When turned into a penalties per game stat the reading is not pretty for All Black fans.

Games Penalties PPG
New Zealand 5 56 11.2
South Africa 4 34 8.5
Australia 3 23 7.6

As you can see, the All Blacks concede almost three more penalties per game that the Boks and just under 3.5 more than the Wallabies.

The historical stats are not much better. Here’s the same table dating back to 2008.

Games Penalties PPG
New Zealand 17 193 11.4
South Africa 16 163 10.1
Australia 15 138 9.2

So both the Wallabies and Springboks are giving away far fewer penalties than their historical averages, while the All Blacks are about the same. The other interesting note is that over this same period both the Boks and Wallabies have received seven yellow cards, while the All Blacks have just four, but this is one instance where the numbers do not tell the full story, context really matters so I’m setting that issue aside for now.

To claim that the All Blacks “get away” with more because they are playing so well right now flies in the face of reality. Sanson claimed that, “They are also smarter, enabling them to “bend” the rules to their advantage,” which is a nonsense.

As Matt rightly points out, the All Blacks seem prepared to give away as many penalties as they need to, keeping their line intact as penalty goals cannot beat tries. The fact that the All Blacks have given away more penalties than their opponents in every single one of their outings seems to confirm this.

Some of us in the New Zealand media need to face up to the facts that the All Blacks are not perfect and no matter how well they are playing, they should never be immune to criticism. Currently their tactics seem to be a little cynical, and I applaud guys like Matt for pointing this out.

Never dismiss well thought out criticism as whinging, even if it is from an England based Aussie.

Much of the talk around the 2010 edition of the Tri-Nations has centred around yellow cards and whether they were correctly or incorrectly given. But that got me thinking, what is a yellow card actually worth?

Now, I just need to clear up a couple of things. The data is slightly skewed by Drew Mitchell’s red card but not in the way you would expect; the Wallabies actually scored four more points than the All Blacks after Mitchell was dismissed. Secondly these are point differentials per yellow card. I.e. what points advantage does the team with the superior numbers have.

Now the first thing you’ll notice here is that this stat has been in decline for a number of years before spiking this year. The overall average across all seasons is just over four points.

Also the number of yellow cards bounces around a lot, going as high as eight in 2009 and 2010, to as low as two in 2008.

Other observations I’ve made while researching this: Teams almost always score some points while an opponent is in the bin, and teams with a player in the bin rarely score tries. Hardly earth shattering revelations, I know.

Overall, it’s an interesting exercise to see just how a yellow card affect the outcome of a game. While it’s only worth, on average, four points to the opponent, teams that pick up more yellow cards than their opponents only manage to win around 18% of the time.

Is it the exhaustion, or the emotional drain of playing with the backs to the wall? Hard to say, but the numbers clearly say that even though yellow cards have little effect on the scoreline, they have a major impact on the result.

We’ve all heard Springbok coach Peter de Villiers’s crazy theories about some refereeing conspiracy against his team, but I disagree. From what I’ve seen so far this international season, the referees have been consistent. Consistently bad that is.

Looking at this from a slightly All Blacks centric view point, as those are the only games I’ve watched every minute of, let’s go back to the beginning of the international season where the All Blacks took on Ireland in New Plymouth. Unfortunately it’s very difficult to comment on Wayne Barnes’ performance as the game was over as a contest at the 14 minute mark when Barnes quite rightly sent off Jamie Heslop for two attempted knees to the head of an opponent.

Games where the result is in no doubt are easy from a technical refereeing stand point, decision making is not so crucial, but man management is as these games can easily descend into brawls. Barnes did a good job in this respect, but I’m reserving judgement on his overall performance due to the nature of the game.

Next came the two tests against Wales, controlled by South Africans Mark Lawrence and Jonathan Kaplan. Nothing really leaps out in my mind about these performances, so they can’t have been particularly noteworthy. I’m sure if I sat down and watched these games again I could nit pick some incidents, but it’s the overall picture I’m looking at here.

Moving on to the highlight of the international season for the Southern Hemisphere, the Tri-Nations. The 2010 edition kicked off in Auckland where the All Blacks took on the Springboks in a game controlled by Irishman Alan Lewis.

Lewis’s biggest issue in this game, aside form missing Bakkies Botha’s headbutt, was his fitness. In an up tempo game where the All Blacks ran the Boks ragged, Lewis was notably slow in the final quater of the game. Positioning is 90% of refereeing, if you’re not in position you can’t make the right decisions. Lewis often wasn’t prompting All Blacks assistant coach Wayne Smith to offer some simple advice: “Get fitter.”

A week later fellow Irishman Alain Rolland took charge as the All Blacks again faced the Springboks in Wellington. Rolland will be remembered for two incidents in that game, the first when he yellow carded Danie Rossouw for no more than a nudge with his boot on McCaw, and secondly for not yellow carding McCaw after he gave away no fewer four penalties at the breakdown.

George Clancy, another Irishman, did not exactly cover himself in glory, turning in a somewhat mediocre performance when the Boks played the Wallabies, handing out a couple of soft-ish yellow cards for ‘tip tackles’ although it is hard to hold that against referees when everyone knows this focus comes from much higher up the food chain.

The first Bledisloe Cup test between Australia and New Zealand followed on and was adequately controlled by Craig Joubert. I applauded his fortitude in showing Drew Mitchell a red card for his second yellow card offense, but on repeat viewing of Mitchell’s first offense, as reported by assistant referee Cobus Wessels, think Mitchell was a little hard done by. In the context of the game I can certainly understand Wessels’ actions, but it did detract from what could have been an excellent game.

Interesting note here, every Tri-Nations game up to this point included at least one yellow card.

Finally we come to the most recent Tri-Nations game, between New Zealand and Australia again, this time controlled by Jonathan Kaplan. Kaplan is a hands-off sort of referee, often preferring to let minor infringements slide when they have little or no impact on the game, in refereeing circles this is referred to as “material effect”. However Kaplan allowed both teams to effectively slow each other’s ball down at the breakdown, something the All Blacks were more adept at doing than the Wallabies, leading to a somewhat uneventful second half.

Perhaps Kaplan’s biggest failing was not yellow carding All Black prop Tony Woodcock for a nasty off the ball hit on Wallaby hooker Saia Faingaa. The footage of this incident should be replayed to referees at all levels with a banner reading “this is what yellow cards were invented for” flashing on the screen.

Whether IRB referee boss Paddy O’Brien will take action against Kaplan, as he did after Wessels’ performance,  remains to be seen but based on past experience I doubt anything will happen. Usually when we hear about “accountability” among referees it means dropping the inexperienced guy for an error but ignoring the errors from the more established guys.

An obvious example of this was the standing down of assistant referee Josh Noonan in round one of the Super 14 this year when he mistakenly flagged the ball as being in touch when it wasn’t. While Noonan was roundly criticized for this, little was said about Stu Dickinson mistakenly awarding a fair catch when a player dropped the ball in the same round.

Now you may have noticed something of a pattern in these errors I’ve highlighted, they all seem to favour the All Blacks. Others have noticed this too and try to invent reasons for these patterns such as bias from the referees, or some global conspiracy to drum up support for the Rugby World Cup next year. To that I say: Hanlon’s Razor, the Law of Large Numbers and the 2007 Rugby World Cup quarter final.

With the Bledisloe Cup safe for another year after the All Blacks beat the Wallabies by 20-10 on Saturday night. A number of players reinforced their positions in their squads, while others will have some soul searching to do if they are to retain their places.

WINNERS

Richie McCaw. The All Black captain showed once again that’s he’s the best in his position, claiming a number of turnovers at the breakdown and acting as a link man when running with the ball out wide. Sure he gave away a couple of penalties but that’s in the job description for a good opensider.

David Pocock. A shining beacon in a Wallabies pack which was totally dominated, Pocock showed that he could one day be a player of Richie McCaw’s level. Pocock claimed a number of crucial turnovers at the breakdown and never gave up, toiling tirelessly up against the more powerful All Black pack.

Mils Muliaina. Some have suggested that Muliaina is too old and too slow for international rugby, but on Saturday night he proved the detractors wrong. Steady and safe at the back, as we’ve come to expect, he also sparked a number of counterattacks from the back and even picked up a try with some wonderful work down a narrow blindside.

LOSERS

Tony Woodcock. How Woodcock has escaped being cited so far for his cheap shot on Saia Faingaa is beyond me. It was cheap, it was calculated and it was exactly the kind of Bakkies Botha-like thuggery which has no place on the rugby field. Sure it wasn’t worthy of a red card, or a lengthy suspension, but when compared with Quade Cooper or Jacques Fourie’s suspensions, it does make a mockery of the citing system.

Matt Giteau. Pointing the finger at Will Genia for the Wallabies’ impotent backline is missing the true cause of their problems. Too often Genia was ready to deliver from the base of the ruck, but Giteau was either out of position or still marshalling the troops. Unlike his opposite, Giteau seems to be little threat with the ball in hand and is unable to freeze defenders like he used to. For the Wallabies, the end of Quade Cooper’s suspension cannot come quickly enough.

Richard Brown. Completely missing in action, both at the breakdown and with the ball in hand, Brown surely is not the answer for the Wallabies at 8. Even with a scrum going backwards, a number eight should be able to generate some go-forward, Brown provided none. As the Wallabies move forward to their tour of South Africa, Brown needs to either greatly improve his play or be discarded.

Comments (0)