Archive for Tri-Nations

Both sides have finished up their appetisers and are headed on to the main course of the international rugby season, the Tri-Nations and Bledisloe Cup. Even though both teams are coming off uninspiring wins over Northern Hemisphere opponents, this is a rivalry that goes back 106 years and these two teams always bring out the best in each other.

The All Blacks’ coaching debate, the rebuilding of the Wallabies all bring extra spice to this dish as Sports After Dark takes an in depth look at the teams and how they match up ahead of their first meeting in Auckland on Saturday.

Back three (Fullback and wingers)

Australia: Adam Ashley-Cooper, Drew Mitchell, Lauchie Turner
New Zealand: Mils Muliaina, Corey Jane, Sitiveni Sivivatu

On of the things that immediately catches my eye here is all three New Zealand players are very capable fullbacks so should be very safe if the Australians try to use the high ball. Sivivatu was in wonderful form in the Super 14 before his injury in the semi final and should be back to his elusive try scoring best for this game, while the Aussies have an elusive try scorer of their own in Mitchell.

Overall this area is very close but I have to give the All Blacks a slight edge here due to their experience at this level.

Midfield (Centres)

Australia: Stirling Mortlock, Berrick Barnes
New Zealand: Conrad Smith, Ma’a Nonu

Again, this is a very even match up with both teams picking centres whose style of play compliments each other. In my view teams should have a centre who can beat the line with speed or skill and a centre who can bust through with power and in this respect both teams have that. Where they differ is Barnes gives the Wallabies a second kicking option in the back line, while Nonu, who is a good kicker, doesn’t like to kick.

Advantage Australia here.

Halves (Fly half and halfback)

Australia: Matt Giteau, Luke Burgess
New Zealand: Stephen Donald, Jimmy Cowan

Without Dan Carter the number 10 jersey has become a massive headache for the All Blacks’ coaching staff with neither Donald or Luke McAlister really claiming the jersey as their own, while Giteau has gone from strength to strength in this position and is arguably the best fly half in the world playing right now. At halfback both teams have a good pass and a threat to run from the base of the ruck, but in this position you would have to give the edge to Cowan provided he keeps his temper under control.

Australia have the better fly half, New Zealand the better half back so it’s a tie here.

Loose forwards

Australia: Wyclif Palu, George Smith, Richard Brown
New Zealand: Rodney So’oialo, Richie McCaw, Jerome Kaino

Here is where the test match could be won and lost. The return of So’oialo and McCaw will greatly boost the All Blacks who have struggled to dominate the breakdown so far this season, while the hard running of Palu and Brown could provide headaches for All Black defenders in midfield. McCaw and Smith once again go head to head in the fetcher role, but provided McCaw lasts 80 minutes he will give his side the edge here as Smith has never really dominated McCaw in past meetings.

New Zealand have a clear edge here if McCaw and So’oialo can last at least 60 minutes.

Locks

Australia: Nathan Sharpe, James Horwill
New Zealand: Brad Thorn, Isaac Ross

An epic collision between man mountains who can not only do the hard yards but can be devastating if they get the ball in a little space. This will not be a test where you will see Ross charging down the sideline like a winger or Horwill busting through the midfield like a centre, this will be trench warfare and all the locks will have their heads down.

Australia with a slight edge only because Sharpe is a proven ball stealer at lineout time, something Thorn does not do often and Ross is yet to do at this level.

Front row (Props and hooker)

Australia: Al Baxter, Stephen Moore, Benn Robinson
New Zealand: Neemia Tialata, Andrew Hore, Tony Woodcock

Much like the locks, the front rowers will have little choice but to dive into the trenches and go to war. While Robinson and Hore can be a threat with ball in hand, don’t expect to see them do it too often. The first scrum will be intense as two skilled front row attempt to see who can gain the ascendency in this good old fashioned forward battle.

Calling this one a draw.

Bench

Australia: Tatafu Polota-Nau, Ben Alexander, Dean Mumm, Phil Waugh, David Pocock, Will Genia, James O’Connor
New Zealand: Keven Mealamu, Owen Franks, Jason Eaton, Kieran Read, Piri Weepu, Luke McAlister, Joe Rokocoko

Here’s where I’m a little confused, why has Robbie Deans picked five forwards on the bench for the Wallabies? I think perhaps his plan is to let Palu run himself ragged for 60 minutes then move Brown to the back of the scrum and Pocock on in a dual openside role with Smith or Waugh when he comes on. However Genia is a specialist halfback leaving O’Connor to cover the rest of the backline, in fact two backline injuries could make life very interesting for the Wallabies’ bench.

The All Blacks have gone with a traditional four forwards, three backs split. The three back reserves, Weepu, McAlister and Rokocoko, cover every position in the back line except fullback, and as mentioned earlier both starting wingers are capable fullbacks. An interesting selection is Owen Franks who only broke into the Super 14 last season, how he plays off the bench could prove pivotal for the All Blacks’ forward effort in the final stages of the game.

Finally there’s some history to be looked at here. Eden Park has been a very happy hunting ground for the All Blacks against the Wallabies, having only lost there four times in over 70 years and their last loss came in 1986. The All Blacks have also won nine of their last eleven meetings with the Wallabies and have held the Bledisloe Cup since 2003. The Wallabies will need to win three of their four meetings with the All Blacks this year to reclaim the Bledisloe Cup.

While many fans feel that this could be the Wallabies’ year with Robbie Deans’s influence starting to show through in the team, coupled with the All Blacks’ poor early season form I don’t think it’s all that clear cut. Do the Wallabies have an advantage on paper? Quite possibly, but this is an All Blacks’ team who embarrassed themselves against Italy and France, and will be looking to redeem themselves.

Whichever way this result goes, and my prediction is it will be close, this will an absolute cracker of a game and I for one can’t wait!

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